A Weaker ‘Eternals’ Box Office Is Just One of Many Issues in Likely November Slowdown

Between 2015 and 2019, box office in November was nearly 40 percent bigger than October.

In October 2021, box office was $622 million; does that mean we can expect about $850 million in November?The short answer: No.

November will likely be flat, or close.

While October 2021 box office represented 79 percent of 2019 (the last normal year), November looks unlikely to even hit 70 percent ($671 million).October was a step in the right direction, but the top players’ uneven performances mutes its positives.

Only “Venom” (now at $190 million) can claim to have performed at a pre-Covid level.

Halloween Kills,” “The Addams Family 2,” and “Dune” all grossed over $40 million last month, and presumably concurrent home play reduced their theatrical performances.

To what degree, no one knows, but each had elevated marketing meant to enhance nontheatrical play.Full disclosure: The estimates that follow are fairly conservative and multiple films will need to prove me wrong in order for November to meet October’s results.

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