Between 2015 and 2019, box office in November was nearly 40 percent bigger than October.
In October 2021, box office was $622 million; does that mean we can expect about $850 million in November?The short answer: No.
November will likely be flat, or close.
While October 2021 box office represented 79 percent of 2019 (the last normal year), November looks unlikely to even hit 70 percent ($671 million).October was a step in the right direction, but the top players’ uneven performances mutes its positives.
Only “Venom” (now at $190 million) can claim to have performed at a pre-Covid level.
“Halloween Kills,” “The Addams Family 2,” and “Dune” all grossed over $40 million last month, and presumably concurrent home play reduced their theatrical performances.
To what degree, no one knows, but each had elevated marketing meant to enhance nontheatrical play.Full disclosure: The estimates that follow are fairly conservative and multiple films will need to prove me wrong in order for November to meet October’s results.
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